Travel and Leisure

"At the moment... this seems to be the worst" year in 500 years.

(Update on current conditions at the end) You don't have to look very hard to see the issues that are plaguing most of Europe right now. Heatwaves and dry weather. Massive wildfires in France, Spain and Portugal. Crop failures. Sky News is reporting that this could be the worst drought conditions seen in 500 years. This has caused major arteries like the Rhine and Danube rivers to dry up to the point where river cruise operators are forced to cancel or change itineraries. The Rhine is expected to hit critical low levels next week. Edit (17-Aug) Rhine closes to barge traffic.

Rhine River pictured in Cologne (Sky News)

I've written about this before in a previous post, but water levels can be unpredictable, and sometimes events occur that make the river(s) impassable in certain locations. While river cruise ships have a very shallow draught, some between 1.5 to 2 metres, it still may not allow them to reach some ports or traverse sections of the river. The last bad year for these drought conditions was 2018; we sailed the Danube in late May that year, and read that many subsequent cruises were diverted or cancelled that season. Unlike where I live (Vancouver), there really isn’t an annual dry season, and surprisingly, some of the wettest months in Central Europe can be June and July. Yet other dry(ish) periods of the year over there aren’t accompanied by the blistering heat of summer.

Historical Danube River water levels

What can you do about this? Nothing, really. Sure, you should have read the fine print about this when you booked your trip, but you can't predict what Mother Nature has in store for you a year out. But if you've fully paid for your cruise, all you can do is wait and see what happens. If you're lucky, maybe you will only have to say, start your cruise in a different port other than Budapest, but everything else might remain the same. Or perhaps you will end up with different ports and excursions than were originally planned for your itinerary. The level of the river can change quickly; some ships can't get through one week, and then only a week later, enough rain may arrive to change things substantially.

Federal Institute for Hydrology (BfG) Rhine water level and forecast 08/17/22

With large operators with a huge fleet of river ships like Viking, sometimes they can do ship swaps to get around some low water issues. But with many others, your deluxe, unpack once, 7-night river cruise turns into a pack-up-every-day bus tour. And whether you've paid $2,000 or $10,000 for your trip, all the travellers get treated to the same hotels and rooms. Some operators will give you a partial refund, and some will outright cancel, giving credits or refunds depending on the line. Should you cancel? That answer is up to you, but river conditions can change quickly, and the difference between a bus tour and a full river cruise may only be a few days' worth of rain.

High water levels in Passau

But if you haven't booked anything yet, the current situation in Europe should give you pause for consideration. Is that too-good-to-be-true price for late-August 2023 really going to be worth the anxiety? Yes, this is the worst drought situation they've seen in 50-70 years, but perhaps you could/should consider a different date? In fact, historical data shows that the Danube improves in September, but the Rhine doesn’t start to recover until the start of October, so your cruise could be in jeopardy even after summer ends. But if you do wait until then, it's likely that you'll also be avoiding the crush of summer tourist season and certainly the high temperatures will be long gone. However, we cruised the Rhine in late October/early November 2009, and the river was still so low that you could "feel" the river bottom when we were in particularly shallow water. Late spring tends to be agreeable weather, and with the snow melt and glacial runoff, rivers are full; sometimes they can be too full however, and instead ships can't get under some of the bridges.

Vienna: still busy in May

I love a good deal, but the heat of the summer months is usually enough to deter me/us from sailing on Europe's waterways in July and August. Even in Vancouver, I often find the summer heat intolerable, even though the mercury only gets above 30ºC for a couple of weeks. Not to mention that every European is on vacation in August, and attractions are packed to capacity. If you fit the typical demographics of the average river cruiser, you don't have school-aged children, so there shouldn't be much forcing you to sail in the summer; most river cruise lines don't allow kids anyways. As I mentioned in my factors to consider post, prices definitely are higher in the late spring, and go up again in September, but I feel that the lower temperatures, fewer tourists, and better chance¹ of agreeable river levels justify the added cost. Will you get caught by an issue with low (or high) water levels on your summertime river cruise? Odds are that you won't, but it's like booking a trip to Cancun in hurricane season... the risk is definitely higher then.

Update Aug. 24: This is how quickly things can change, and why you may not want to cancel cruises when water conditions get low. The image below is the Aug. 23rd current reading and forecast for Kaub, after a few good days of rain.

Federal Institute for Hydrology (BfG) Rhine water level and forecast 08/23/22

You can see a distinct difference between last week, and this week, as the level has risen above the critical 78 cm marker, and shows a high probability of staying above it until at least the first week of September. Ships and operators that were cancelling cruises and/or shuttling passengers around low spots, are now able to fully sail the route from Amsterdam to Budapest!

¹ Opinions expressed here are my own; research conducted using historical data and weather patterns for West and Central Europe.

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